Who’s Too High/Too Low in the CFP National Championship Odds?

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    GLENDALE, AZ - JANUARY 11: The College Football Playoff National Championship Trophy is seen on the field before the 2016 College Football Playoff National Championship Game between the Clemson Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide at University of Phoenix Stadium on January 11, 2016 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

    Who’s Too High/Too Low in the CFP National Championship Odds?

    Now that we are just a couple of months away from the start of the new season and we can start to get a clearer picture of rosters, we can start to make some predictions on how things will pan out.

    Of course, it is still a bit too early to say with a degree of certitude who will be winning it all on January 7th in Santa Clara. However, when it comes to odds from sports books, we can pinpoint where there is some value and where teams have been overrated.

    Most sports books have had the odds ready ever since the Tide landed their sixth title under Nick Saban in January. But, are they correct in their assertions? Below is a look at the main contenders with a view to assessing if the sports books have gone too low or high. All odds are provided by William Hill.

    Alabama

    Odds: 5/2

    Nobody expected anything else than the Tide being favorites, did they? There are a few niggles to iron out before the start of the season, whether Jaylen Hurts or Tua Tagovailoa will be their quarterback to name just one one. But they are relentless under Saban and make the playoffs again, at least. 5/2 represents good value for a team that has contested the last three championship games.

    Verdict: Odds are too high

    This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA

    Ohio State

    Odds: 7/1

    This is a good example of how sports books differ, because several have Clemson ahead of Ohio State in the odds. You can find out more about the different sports books with this guide to betting on sports in Canada with onlinesportbetting.ca. Anyway, the Buckeyes fell short last year, but there is a lot of positivity about them in the national media. Those odds would need to be a little bigger however.

    Verdict: too low

    Clemson

    Odds: 8/1

    The 2017 champions are expected to be in the mix once again. They will be nailed on to win the ACC Atlantic Division, it’s just a matter of how they perform in the playoffs. They were, by all objective measure, awful offensively in 24-6 defeat to Alabama in the Sugar Bowl in January. However, there seems to be some justified optimism around the Tigers.

    Verdict: too high

    Georgia

    Odds: 10/1

    Georgia is another program whose odds vary a lot among different sports books. Losing in overtime was a devastating blow to the Bulldogs. Plenty think that they will be able to bounce back, but there may be a psychological disadvantage should they meet Alabama in the Championship Game. Still, 10/1 odds are reasonably generous for a team who could so easily have been the champions.

    Verdict: too high

    Penn State

    Odds: 14/1

    We are now in among the teams where it would be considered a slight shock should they find themselves playing in and winning the Championship Game. Nitanny Lions fans should be confident of a good season, but it is unlikely that we will be seeing them in January.

    Verdict: too low

    Michigan

    Odds: 16/1

    Some sports books have the Wolverines at nearly half the odds listed above, so, for that reason, they are already a bargain. However, the fact that Jim Harbaugh is bringing so many of last year’s team back with him makes many believe Wolverines can do something special this year.

    Verdict: too high

    This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA

    Auburn

    Odds: 25/1

    Will it be another season of being overshadowed by their illustrious state rivals? Probably. But Auburn will push The Tide all the way in the SEC West. Once again, you might want to see bigger odds before choosing to back them.

    Verdict: too low.

     

    Main Photo Credit:

    GLENDALE, AZ – JANUARY 11: The College Football Playoff National Championship Trophy is seen on the field before the 2016 College Football Playoff National Championship Game between the Clemson Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide at University of Phoenix Stadium on January 11, 2016 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

    1 COMMENT

    1. Considering that the CFP is rigged invitational determined by a bunch of self serving old men hiding behind closed doors, quoting odds is like predicting how many fish your going to shoot out of a barrel of fish.

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